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Published: October 29, 2009 02:19 am
GUEST EDITORIAL: Be sensible when it comes to swine flu
Now that President Obama has declared swine flu a national emergency and manufacturers are warning that vaccine production is running far behind schedule, is it time to panic? Almost certainly not. Swine flu is spreading rapidly, but the virus appears no more virulent than a seasonal flu virus. If current trends continue, it will kill or hospitalize fewer people than would be harmed in a normal flu season.
Millions have already been infected with the swine flu virus. It has killed more than 1,000 Americans and sent more than 20,000 to the hospital. While that is frightening, the final tally is still likely to be less than in a normal flu season, when the circulating strains typically cause around 36,000 deaths and 200,000 hospitalizations.
The president’s declaration of an emergency was a procedural maneuver to make it easier for hospitals, should they be swamped with sick people, to transfer them to alternate sites for triage and treatment.
The availability of swine flu vaccine is running way behind the original expectations, in part because federal health officials were overly optimistic in predicting how much could be delivered rapidly, and in part because manufacturers have experienced production difficulties. Only 16 million doses of vaccine are currently available. By late November, that number is expected to rise to 66 million, still not enough to meet expected demand.
While there is no reason to panic, there is also no reason for anyone to let down their guard. People should take normal precautions, including washing hands, covering their coughs and staying home when they’re sick. There is always a possibility that the swine flu virus will come back in a third wave early next year, possibly in a more virulent form. Production problems seem to be easing and federal officials say that there should be ample supplies of vaccine by then to protect virtually everyone who wants protection.
— The New York Times
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