Published: January 06, 2007 11:22 pm      

WARM WEATHER: Don’t blame it on global warming

Weather expert says two global weather patterns explain the mild winter ... so far

Last year marked a wacky time in weather — a nasty October storm and unseasonably warm temperatures and very little amounts of snow in December.

“This past month capped off a very unusual 2006 which was warm and generally snow-less, with one major October exception,” said WKBW-TV Channel 7 Weather Anchor Jennifer Stanonis.

Will the warm weather continue

in 2007?

So far the answer is yes.

In January, temperatures have already neared 50 degrees and snow hasn’t fallen yet this year.

“Some people might point the finger at global warming, but don’t tell that to the people in Denver who have endured two blizzards this winter and have struggled with impassable, snow-covered roads,” said Aaron Mentkowski, meteorologist at WKBW-TV Channel 7. “What’s happening is that the weather is always trying to maintain a balance. If it’s mild and dry in the east, it’s cold and snowy out west. We try to pin a lot on the idea of global warming, which some people believe is being caused by human intervention. Weather is always changing, because that’s what it does; I certainly would not blame our weather this winter on the idea of global warming.”

Instead, Mentkowski explained, we need to look at two global weather patterns to explain our mild weather in Western New York. First, in the Pacific Ocean, where an El Nino pattern has developed. During El Nino winters, Buffalo generally experiences above-normal temperatures, which is what has been occurring in the past three months.

However, in order to determine the extended forecast, it is important to consider the weather patterns over the Atlantic Ocean to determine our extended forecast.

“When the area of high pressure over the Atlantic Ocean and the area of low pressure near Greenland are stronger than normal, we call this a positive North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO),” Mentkowski said. “We are experiencing that positive phase now, and it is resulting in mild weather. This weather pattern also keeps cold air from building over Northern Canada, so we don't see as much cold air spilling down from Canada into Western New York. Between El Nino and the positive NAO, we should experience mild weather, and so far that has been proven to be correct.”

These sorts of weather patterns are anticipated to continue into spring 2007.

“El Nino has had a significant continental effect with moderate warming effects on the Great Lakes,” sadi David Zaff, a representative from the National Weather Service . “Even though it will be a mild winter, that doesn’t mean it’s going to get much warmer, there is a strong chance there will still be snow here and there. El Nino is forecasted to eventually weaken towards April.”

Yet with an unfrozen lake, the chance of lake effect storms still could present a major problem if heavy amounts of precipitation moved into the area.

“We will see some snow at some point,” Mentkowski said. “We could also face a significant lake-effect snowstorm since the lake temperatures are still mild, and lake-effect snow develops when cold air flows over the mild lake waters. Temperatures this spring will average out near normal but we should see temperatures above normal again for the upcoming summer.”